Authors: Barbora Kudzmanaite, Gabriele Songin
Image source: Adobe Firefly
On 21 November, PPMI, in collaboration with TNO and the European Commission, organised a foresight session on the future of personal data use and online identity in Brussels, Belgium. The event brought together policymakers, leading experts and academics to discuss the challenges and opportunities of online identity systems towards 2035. The session took place in the context of the Participatory Foresight into Next Generation Platforms project, implemented by PPMI and TNO for DG CNECT.
The digital landscape is undergoing a profound transformation that goes far beyond simple technological innovation. Our relationship with personal data is shifting from a transactional model of ownership to a complex, dynamic system of stewardship and collaborative interaction. The PPMI is exploring the future of personal data use and online identity, recognising this domain as a critical intersection of technology, policy, and human agency. In this context, the foresight session focused on exploring different futures of digital identity, with the primary objectives:
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to facilitate the Commission's work in rendering the EU fit for the evolving landscape of personal data use and online identity, and to manage the challenges from the digital and green 'twin' transformation;
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to assist the Commission in navigating the opportunities and challenges presented by the global trends in personal data management and online identity systems;
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design and develop comprehensive foresight processes for the topic of personal data and online identity, making use of stakeholder interviews, desk and exploratory research, expert workshops and a wide range of foresight tools.
Our recent foresight exercise revealed not a single predetermined path, but a complex landscape of potential futures for personal data use and online identity. By exploring three distinct visions of 2035 online identity systems, we uncovered the intricate interplay of social attitudes, regulatory frameworks, market dynamics, and personal data ownership.
Futures: kaleidoscope of possibilities
- Grassroots Wave future imagines a bottom-up approach to digital identity, where individuals are empowered through education and collective action.
- In Critical Mass, digital identity is shaped by major technological players, with users having minimal control over their personal data ecosystem.
- In State Aligned future, governments take a dominant role in managing and controlling digital identities.
Beyond binary choices
Crucially, these futures are not mutually exclusive. They represent potential combinations and intersections of online identity systems. By thoughtfully examining how these potential futures could come together or go in different directions, the various stakeholders can collaborate to create online identity systems that capture the advantages of multiple visions, while also putting the right protections in place. This requires a nuanced understanding of the trade-offs and interdependencies between the various inflection points, rather than simply selecting the 'best' future.
For example, the potential privacy risks remain remarkably similar whether online identity systems are state-led or privately managed:
These parallel risk structures suggest that the controlling entity matters less than the underlying technological architecture and data management protocols. Essentially, the underlying tech plays a central role. Contrary to simplistic narratives about data ownership, our analysis reveals a much more sophisticated reality. The critical question is no longer ‘Who owns the data?’ but rather
‘How can we create flexible, human-centric frameworks that balance innovation, individual agency, and societal well-being?’
Navigating the complexity
It's important to note that the potential outcomes are not predetermined. Collaborative efforts between policymakers, industry, and civil society can help shape a more cohesive and equitable digital identity landscape. While the underlying technological architecture plays a crucial role, the controlling entities (whether state or private) do not necessarily dictate the privacy and security outcomes. What matters most is the intentional design of these systems to prioritise individual agency, transparency, and ethical governance. The goal is not to predict a single, predetermined path, but to build adaptive and resilient digital identity frameworks that can navigate the complexity of technological, social, and regulatory change.
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Stakeholder |
Key imperatives |
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Organisations |
1. Develop adaptive strategies that can pivot between different future scenarios 2. Create flexible identity management systems that prioritise user agency 3. Invest in privacy-preserving technologies and transparent data practices |
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Policymakers |
1. Design regulatory frameworks that can accommodate multiple potential futures 2. Foster international collaboration on digital identity standards 3. Create mechanisms for continuous technological and ethical assessment |
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Technology developers |
1. Build interoperable systems with robust privacy protections 2. Design technologies that prioritise human agency and ethical considerations 3. Implement multi-layered safeguards against algorithmic bias and manipulation |
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Individual users |
1. Cultivate critical digital literacy skills 2. Practice active and intentional management of personal data 3. Develop resilience against digital manipulation and misinformation |
Embracing uncertainty
Our exploration reveals that the future of personal data is not a destination, but a continuous negotiation. Success will come to those who can:
- remain flexible;
- prioritise human agency;
- continuously reassess and adapt.
The most effective approach will be one that can harvest the benefits of multiple futures while implementing safeguards against their inherent vulnerabilities.
Digital identity is not something that happens to us – it's something we collectively create.
Learn more about the study
The event was part of a study carried out by PPMI and TNO for the European Commission, which examines the development of online platforms and their impact on European society and economy. You can find out more about the study HERE.
Throughout the study, the team is engaging a wide range of stakeholders in co-creation and co-assessment exercises to uncover different future scenarios and their implications. This event is part of a series of participatory sessions with different stakeholders, including policymakers, industry, academia and youth.
The results of this foresight session will feed into a paper on the future of personal data use and online identity to be published early 2025. It will be one of 9 foresight papers developed during the study.
