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Culture and creative sectors in the European Union - key future developments, challenges and opportunities

The aim of the foresight study was to provide the new European Parliament’s Committee on Culture and Education (CULT) with information on the key trends that are likely to impact the future development of the culture and creative sectors (CCS) in the EU by 2030. 

The foresight study assessed the way the European CCS are already affected and could be affected in the future by economic, social, political or technologic changes. The first part of the study analysed the state-of-play, while the second part advanced a prospective analysis grounded on scenarios. The scenarios developed for this study fall under one of the two categories:

  • Aspirational scenarios: desirable and/or necessary transitions which would bring the most of potential opportunities to both sectors and to which most actors within the sector aspire to achieve.
  • Disruptive scenarios: the least desirable ones, those that capture the main sets of future risks to both sectors.

The study was led by PPMI’s partner KEA. The research process included data collection through desk research, interviews and a policy Delphi survey, a SWOT analysis and scenario-building exercise. In this study, the PPMI team was responsible for the implementation of the policy Delphi survey and organisation of a validation workshop. PPMI has also carried out the strategic foresight and the scenario-building exercise. 

The policy Delphi survey collected a 187 responses that were used to develop initial scenarios for the future. These were validated during a workshop, which brought together 16 representatives from organisations working in field of CCS. Based on the data collected a number of aspirational and disruptive scenarios were developed focusing on eight areas: economy, labour market, policy, social aspects, technology, international cultural relations, politics and artistic freedom, and environment.