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PPMI has completed a foresight study on the Future of Assessment in Primary and Secondary Education, launched by DG EAC of the European Commission. The main objective of this study was to investigate and develop an informed view on how recent and ongoing trends and developments in pedagogy, assessment methods, practices and policies, technology, societal, cultural and socio-economic conditions may influence the evolution and potential transformation of assessment of learning outcomes in primary and secondary education by 2030.

In collaboration with key experts in the field of educational assessment, PPMI has developed a probable scenario for the future of assessment of learning outcomes in primary and secondary education (by 2030). The research team conducted a systematic review of academic literature and comparative policy studies of international organisations, which was the basis of the trend impact / drivers analysis. Using this method the research team was able to identify the most relevant drivers for the ongoing and future developments in educational assessment, as well as their potential impact on the evolution of assessment in primary and secondary education. On this basis, PPMI carried out a strategic foresight exercise encompassing the combination of two methods resulting in the development of the probable scenario of the assessment of learning outcomes in primary and secondary education. The SWOT analysis highlighted opportunities and threats of the identified trends, as well as important factors for the interrelation and potential influence of these trends. The Delphi survey engaged relevant stakeholders in the field of education in Europe and collected expert opinions on how assessment will evolve in the future. The two rounds of the survey resulted in a synthesised view on the possible future of classroom assessment based on experts' and practitioners' views and opinions.

Overall, the project explored how assessment of learning outcomes in primary and secondary education will potentially look like in ten years’ time, in light of the relevant developments and their probable impact on education and assessment in Europe. The results of the study supported the European Commission in stimulating a debate at European level and generate new, forward-looking policy ideas to support future learning and reflections at European level on the medium-term evolutions of primary and secondary education. In the context of the ‘Future of Learning’ agenda, and as the Europe 2020 Strategy and the ET 2020 Strategic Framework are coming to an end, this study supported the Commission in providing Member States with possible avenues for future policy developments in the area of educational assessment.


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